Africa’s growing demand for dairy products continues to outpace domestic production, leaving major markets such as Nigeria, Egypt, Senegal and Zimbabwe exposed to rising import costs, global price volatility and persistent production challenges.
The 2025 African Agriculture Barometer on the dairy value chain, produced by FARM Foundation, Afdi and the Pan-African Farmers’ Organization (PAFO), showed that Africa imported about $7.5 billion worth of dairy products in 2023, compared with exports of only $1.1 billion.
The resulting $6.4 billion trade deficit highlights the continent’s continued dependence on foreign dairy supplies, with milk powder, fat-filled milk powder and infant formula accounting for 76 per cent of dairy imports.
Although African milk production increased by 17 per cent from 45.5 million tonnes in 2013 to 53.2 million tonnes in 2023, its share of global production remained at about five per cent as global output expanded at a faster rate.
Nigeria remains one of the countries facing a significant supply gap. A 2026 study published in Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems, using FAOSTAT data, estimated that Nigeria produced about 527,000 tonnes of milk in 2022 but imported 927,000 tonnes, with imports accounting for roughly 64 per cent of available milk supply.
The pressure is also reflected in consumer prices. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that the average price of a 150-gram tin of Peak evaporated milk increased to ₦1,055.15 in April 2026 from ₦994.19 in February, representing a 6.13 per cent rise.
In response, the Federal Government is seeking increased private-sector investment to expand domestic dairy production and reduce Nigeria’s estimated $1.5 billion annual dairy import bill.
The Minister of Livestock Development, Idi Mukhtar Maiha, said the government’s objective was to establish a sustainable dairy industry rather than simply increase cattle imports.
Under a proposed dairy public-private partnership, Hillview Ranch Enterprises Limited plans to introduce 60,000 pregnant or lactating dairy cattle in phases, beginning with 2,500 animals.
The initiative is projected to produce about 229.5 million litres of milk annually, while the Federal Government targets an increase in national milk production from about 700,000 tonnes to 1.4 million tonnes within five years.
However, experts say increasing the number of animals alone will not resolve the sector’s challenges, stressing the need for improvements in animal genetics, productivity, health services, electricity, cold storage and processing infrastructure.
The Frontiers study also identified climate stress and the dominance of low-yield indigenous cattle as major constraints affecting Nigeria’s dairy production.
Similar challenges persist across other African markets.
Egypt produced approximately 5.72 million tonnes of milk in 2022 but imported about 2.2 million tonnes. UN Comtrade data also showed that the country imported 23,620 tonnes of unsweetened solid milk and cream worth $106.52 million in 2025.
In Senegal, high production and distribution costs continue to affect consumers, with regular milk in Dakar averaging about 1,528 CFA francs per litre in May 2026.
Zimbabwe recorded growth in its dairy sector, with its commercial dairy herd increasing by 7.5 per cent to 70,584 cattle in 2025, while milk production rose by 6.2 per cent to 121.85 million litres.
Despite the increase, production costs stood at about $0.63 per litre, higher than the average producer price of $0.58, while retail UHT milk averaged $1.35 per litre.
The figures from the four markets indicate that increasing milk production alone may not be enough to close Africa’s dairy gap.
Experts say stronger processing capacity, cold-chain infrastructure, animal health systems, improved genetics and efficient market infrastructure will be critical to reducing import dependence, improving farmer incomes and making dairy products more affordable for consumers across the continent.
